This is the blog of William Morris, Secretary General of the Next Century Foundation and Chairman of the International Communications Forum. William was an independent candidate for the post of Police and Crime Commissioner for the Devon and Cornwall Police Force in the recent November 2012 elections. You can contact him on williammorris@southwestjustice.org .





You can also follow William on twitter @SouthWestMorris or on facebook or on his website http://www.southwestjustice.org/







Saturday, December 29, 2012

HAPPY CHRISTMAS

Christmas is far from over. The feast lasts right through Twelfth Night. That is up ‘till and including the Epiphany feast of the Three Wise Men on 6th January by my reckoning.

One of the Churches in Homs, Syria

Moments of Sadness:
For me the worst side of the past year has been the war in Syria. So sad to see our British government just pouring petrol on that fire. To what purpose? We back the Salafist factions in a bloody civil war that will last, at an absolute minimum, a further two years and probably much longer. We undermine UN attempts at a negotiated settlement that would speedily see the back of Assad and by so doing we force the Christians (10% of Syria’s population) and Alawites (15% of Syria’s population) to fight to the death (by giving them no ownership of any part of the post Assad body politic in this sectarian conflict).
Meanwhile, casualty figures remain high; however on the plus side the winter in Syria will drastically lessen the level of conflict in the bitter cold as people concentrate on survival. None the less, there were 1,155 civilians killed in the past week, plus 343 rebel fighters killed, and plus 362 government forces (army and police) were killed. Most weeks the death toll is similar.

Moments of Gladness:
For me one of the best parts of the past year was standing in the election for Police and Crime Commissioner. Of course I lost but it became an informed campaign towards the end and proved very worthwhile. By the way, one strong argument AGAINST the widespread encouragement of postal voting was that press coverage only gathered pace after the closing date for postal voting. Another clear impression I was left with was the growing importance of social media. It took three of us (myself, my sister and my buddy Mark) to field the hundreds of e-mails each day on issues as disparate as drugs, wildlife crime and privatisation. What did strike me though, was that to get a real take on these complex issues, you still need to go out and meet people. Reading the press or e-mails is all well and good but you only get an in depth feeling for what people are thinking by listening to them. And the good old public meeting, even though in some of them only one or two actually turn up, was the best way of gauging how people felt.

And Finally:
I wanted some sort of maxim, a kind of New Year’s resolution for 2013. I was thinking of something I once wrote for my son and daughter-in-law which went, “Live without fear; Love without sorrow; Laugh at the past; Take hold of tomorrow.” But it didn’t seem quite right. What seemed right was the maxim, “Live for the moment”. It seems the best approach – just for now. But with the old motto, "Wisely if Sincerely" (sapienter si sincere) as a rider.

I wrote a Christmas poem this year. It goes:
Though there was someone who built the mountains tall,
And there is someone who paints the forests green,
An instigator who makes the oceans roll,
A known-unknown God, the only seen-unseen;

There is still Christmas to bring Him down to earth,
A great crescendo to roll the old year out,
And should the darkness allow the devil in,
There’s baby Jesus to turn things round about.

For there’s tomorrow to build a brighter dawn,
Another New Year around the corner yet,
And should the past seem battered, bruised and torn,
The next year’s sunrise is a far brighter bet.

For there’s an angel stood here for you and me,
To keep us laughing when days are dark and grey,
And keep us happy when nights grow cold and long,
And shape the sunshine straight out of broken clay.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Overview of Monthly Casualty Figures for Syria


July to November 2012




Detailed Weekly Figures
For the civilian casualty figures NCF used the LCC figure subtracting the highest rebel casualty figure per area

CASUALTIES FOR  JULY
CIVILIANS
REBELS
GOVERNMENT
01.07.12
58
10
19
WEEK 2.07-8.07
462
70
191
WEEK 9.07-15.07
454
170
237
WEEK 16.07-22.07
848
211
348
WEEK 23.07-29.07
829
199
228
30.07.12
97
26
34
31.07.12
41
47
62
TOTAL
2789
733
1119


For the civilian casualty figures NCF used the LCC figure subtracting the highest rebel casualty figure per area. The figures for the last two weeks are taken from VDC.

CASUALTIES FOR  AUGUST
CIVILIANS
REBELS
GOVERNMENT
WEEK 01.08-05.08
435
278
201
WEEK 06.08-12.08
469
598
309
WEEK 13.08-19.08
766
373
269
WEEK 20.08-26.08
1287
309
272
WEEK 27.08-31.08
611
216
127
TOTAL
3568
1774
1178


 NCF has chosen the highest available figures for each day and area.


CASUALTIES FOR  SEPTEMBER
CIVILIANS
REBELS
GOVERNMENT
01.09.2012
256
58
32
02.09.2012
158
13
N/A
WEEK 03.09-09.09
1534
233
261
WEEK 10.09-16.09
1206
321
198
WEEK 17.09-23.09
1232
465
205
WEEK 24.09-30.09
1497
606
172
TOTAL
5883
1696
868

 
NCF has chosen the highest available figures for each day and area.

CASUALTIES FOR  OCTOBER
CIVILIANS
REBELS
GOVERNMENT
WEEK 01.10-07.10
1158
660
353
WEEK 08.10-14.10
1484
851
411
WEEK 15.10-21.10
1242
787
363
WEEK 22.10-28.10
1202
339
272
WEEK 29.10-31.10
451
99
217
TOTAL
5537
2736
1616


NCF has chosen the highest available figures for each day and area.

CASUALTIES FOR  NOVEMBER
CIVILIANS
REBELS
GOVERNMENT
WEEK 01.11-04.11
750
209
231
WEEK 05.11-11.11
1064
412
326
WEEK 12.11-18.11
1093
288
322
WEEK 19.11-25.11
937
786
295
WEEK 26.11-30.11
794
232
317
TOTAL
4638
1927
1491


More detailed analysis of casualty figures can be found on the Syria Blog.